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The U.S. Over-Supply of Oil is Ending

The U.S. over-supply of oil is ending. Comparative inventory (C.I.) has been dramatically reduced in 2017. Levels have fallen 159 mmb since February and are now approaching the 5-year average for the first time in nearly 3 years (Figure 1). Figure 1. The U.S. Over-Supply of Oil is Ending. Sou ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 2 months agoOpinion > United StatesOilOver-Supply +2

Art on MacroVoices: Comparative Inventory Draws Spell Higher Oil Prices

Erik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices . Erik and Art discuss: Comparative inventory levels on oil; Oil price responsive to inventories; Realization price recovery in crude prices takes time; Refinery intakes have not recovered; Where are average consumption levels; Outlook on gaso ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 2 months agoOpinion > oil priceRealisation recoveryCrude +6

Art Berman BNN Interview: Investors Get Reality Check on U.S. Shale

Centennial Resource Development and Pioneer have suggested that there may be a crack in the whole "shale revolution." Pioneer Natural Resources, CEO said that "Underground pressure problems stymied output and delayed drilling for months." We check in with Art Berman, Geological Consultant with Labyr ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 3 months agoOpinion > US ShaleUnited StatesCentennial Resource Development +1

Higher Oil Prices Are Likely in Early 2018

Oil prices will be lower for longer—that is the conventional wisdom. Data suggests, however, that  oil supplies are tightening and that higher prices are likely in the relatively near-future. Refined Product Demand and Crude Oil Exports U.S. crude oil plus products comparative inventories have ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 3 months agoOpinion > oil priceUnited StatesCrude +5

U.S. Inventory Reductions Probably Not Sustainable

The decline in U.S. comparative inventories since February is the most significant oil market development since prices collapsed three years ago. It means that U.S. demand has exceeded supply for most of the last 5 months. The main cause is lower net imports, not higher domestic consumption, and th ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 5 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth Report

Permian Reserves May Be Much Smaller Than You Think

We are entering a new age of American energy dominance according to Energy Secretary  Rick Perry . President Trump reflected that view in  comments  he made last week that “…we've got underneath us more oil than anybody, and nobody knew it until five years ago.” Trump was referring to tight oil pr ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 5 months agoOpinion > Art BermanPermianPresident Trump

Shale Gas Is Not A Revolution

Shale gas is not a revolution. It's just another play with a somewhat higher cost structure but larger resource base than conventional gas. The marginal cost of shale gas production is $4/mmBtu despite popular but incorrect narratives that it is lower. The average spot price of gas has been $3.77 ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 6 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth ReportShale Gas

Energy Nonsense From the Wall Street Journal

The lead editorial in Friday's Wall Street Journal  was pure energy nonsense. “Lessons of the Energy Export Boom”  proclaimed that the United States is becoming the oil and gas superpower of the world. This despite the uncomfortable fact that it is also the world's biggest importer of crude oil. ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 6 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth ReportUSA +1

OPEC Extends Cuts, Oil Prices Fall: What It Means

OPEC extended oil production cuts last week and oil prices plunged. OPEC's goal was to keep a floor under current prices but the market expected the cartel to move prices higher through inventory reduction. OPEC was satisfied with greater revenues from higher prices compared to a year ago, but the ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 7 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth ReportOPEC

Strong Natural Gas Prices And Tight Supply In 2017

A year ago, most analysts were bearish about natural gas prices.    I wrote that natural gas prices might double and they did. Today, most analysts are again bearish about gas prices and again, I think that they are probably wrong at least for 2017. The mainstream narrative  is that new pipeline ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 8 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth Reportnatural gas

Oil Prices Plunge To Where They Should Be

WTI oil prices plunged to almost $45 per barrel yesterday (Figure 1). That was a downward adjustment to where prices should be based supply, demand and inventory fundamentals. Figure 1. Oil Prices Are Testing a $45 Floor. Source: EIA, CBOE, Bloomberg and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Ana ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 8 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth Reportoil price

OPEC Production Cuts and The Long Road To Market Balance

Global oil inventories are falling because of OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts but the road to market balance will be long. Production cuts have removed approximately 1.8 million barrels per day (mmb/d) of liquids from the world market since November 2016 (Figure 1). Figure 1. OPEC-NOPEC Have ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 8 months agoOpinion > The Petroleum Truth ReportArt BermanOPEC

Low Break-Even Prices Are For Everyone–Not Just Shale Companies

Shale companies have pushed break-even oil prices below $40 per barrel—but so have major oil companies. Analysts commonly portray cost reduction as something unique to the tight oil companies. Data from annual reports filed with the U.S. SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) suggests otherwise. ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 9 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth ReportShale +1

Shale Cost Reductions Are 10% Technology and 90% Industry Bust

I am tired of hearing about the unbelievable impact of technology on collapsing U.S. shale production costs. The truth is that these claims are  unbelievable. The savings are real but only about 10% is from advances in technology. About 90% is because the oil industry is in a depression and oil fi ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 9 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth ReportShale +1

Oil Prices Plunge: Over-Reaction or Turning Point?

Oil prices plunged yesterday. Is this an over-reaction or a turning point? WTI futures fell $2.86 from $53.14 to $50.28 per barrel, and Brent futures dropped $3.81 from $55.92 to $52.11 per barrel. WTI is trading below $49 and Brent, below $52 per barrel at this writing. The apparent cause was a ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 10 months agoOpinion > Art Bermanoil price