Art Berman


All posts for Art Berman

Oil Markets Recover From Panic Attack but Prices Will Go Lower

Crude markets had a panic attack in August and September that sent prices soaring. Sanity is now returning. Prices have fallen but are likely to move even lower over the next few months. The panic attack was caused largely by Trump's August 7 announcement that sanctions would be re-imposed on Iran ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 1 month agoOpinion > Oiloil priceCrude +5

Natural Gas Risky Business: What, Me Worry?

Natural gas storage is at record low levels but prices are falling going into winter heating season. Markets seem to be betting that wellhead supply will be sufficient to cover demand this winter. That may be but at what gas prices? This is a game of natural gas risky business. Natural gas 6- ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 2 months agoOpinion > natural gasStorageArt Berman +3

Art Berman: Don't Believe The Hype - Oil Prices Aren't Going Back To $100

The breakout in Brent crude prices above $80 this week has prompted analysts at the sell side banks to start talking about a return to $100 a barrel oil . Even President Trump has gotten involved, demanding that OPEC ramp up production to send oil prices lower before they start to weigh on US co ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 2 months agoOpinion > Art BermanOil PrucePresident Trump +4

Markets Have De-Valued Oil Prices: How Long Will It Last?

Comparative inventory: The most important approach to oil & gas price formation Comparative Inventory (C.I.) is the difference between current stock levels of crude oil & select refined products, and their 5-year average. C.I. has accurately predicted most of the changes in oil pric ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 2 months agoOpinion > Art BermanOil pricesOil +7

MacroVoices Podcast: The Market Has De-Valued the Oil Price Yield Curve

The market has de-valued the oil price yield curve Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss: Comparative inventory on oil Inventory correlation to price Price cycles and the oil-price yield curve Impact of U.S. exporting oil Tren ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 2 months agoOpinion > Art Bermanoil priceYield Curve +2

Shale Plays Will Not Cause the Next Financial Crisis

Many think that debt and negative cash flow by U.S. shale companies will crash the global financial system. I believe the opposite is more likely, that a developing financial crisis may crash oil prices and test the survival of shale plays. In The Next Financial Crisis Lurks Underground , Bethany ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 3 months agoOpinion > ShaleArt BermanUnited States +4

Art Called Important Market Player by Black Diamond Research

  Key Financial Market Quotes (June 2018) https://www.blackdiamondindex.com/single-post/quotes201806 July 5, 2018 Black Diamond Research The following is an extract from the Black Diamond Stock Market Indexes Report for the month of June 2018. We always cl ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 5 months agoOpinion > Art BermanBlack Diamond

Tight Oil Money Return on Investment Eagle Ford Shale Case History

The Eagle Ford Shale Play - San Antonio Located in South Texas between San Antonio and Corpus Christi. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing began in 2008. Approximately 17,000 producing wells. February production was 935,000 bo/d, down from 1,324,000 in December 2014. 71 ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 8 months agoOpinion > Art BermanShaleEagle Ford Shale +9

$60 – $65 Emerging Mid-Cycle Price For WTI

This is a guest post by J. M. Bodell modified from a comment he wrote on my recent Oil Price Crossroad  post. He has extensive experience in petroleum market analysis, natural resource cost structure, scenario planning and strategic planning for Strategic Energy Research & Capital, Cambridge Ene ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 9 months agoOpinion > WTIArt Bermanoil price +1

Oil Price Crossroad

Posted in The Petroleum Truth Report on February 26, 2018 The oil-price rally that began a year ago is at a crossroad. In February, WTI futures fell from a 3-year high of more than $66 to less than $60 per barrel but have since recovered almost 70% of that value. Was this a temporary adjustment ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 9 months agoOpinion > Art Bermanoil price

The U.S. Over-Supply of Oil is Ending

The U.S. over-supply of oil is ending. Comparative inventory (C.I.) has been dramatically reduced in 2017. Levels have fallen 159 mmb since February and are now approaching the 5-year average for the first time in nearly 3 years (Figure 1). Figure 1. The U.S. Over-Supply of Oil is Ending. Sou ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 1 year agoOpinion > United StatesOilOver-Supply +2

U.S. Inventory Reductions Probably Not Sustainable

The decline in U.S. comparative inventories since February is the most significant oil market development since prices collapsed three years ago. It means that U.S. demand has exceeded supply for most of the last 5 months. The main cause is lower net imports, not higher domestic consumption, and th ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 1 year agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth Report

Permian Reserves May Be Much Smaller Than You Think

We are entering a new age of American energy dominance according to Energy Secretary  Rick Perry . President Trump reflected that view in  comments  he made last week that “…we've got underneath us more oil than anybody, and nobody knew it until five years ago.” Trump was referring to tight oil pr ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 1 year agoOpinion > Art BermanPermianPresident Trump

Shale Gas Is Not A Revolution

Shale gas is not a revolution. It's just another play with a somewhat higher cost structure but larger resource base than conventional gas. The marginal cost of shale gas production is $4/mmBtu despite popular but incorrect narratives that it is lower. The average spot price of gas has been $3.77 ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 1 year agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth ReportShale Gas

Energy Nonsense From the Wall Street Journal

The lead editorial in Friday's Wall Street Journal  was pure energy nonsense. “Lessons of the Energy Export Boom”  proclaimed that the United States is becoming the oil and gas superpower of the world. This despite the uncomfortable fact that it is also the world's biggest importer of crude oil. ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 1 year agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth ReportUSA +1