Art Berman


All posts for Art Berman

U.S. Inventory Reductions Probably Not Sustainable

The decline in U.S. comparative inventories since February is the most significant oil market development since prices collapsed three years ago. It means that U.S. demand has exceeded supply for most of the last 5 months. The main cause is lower net imports, not higher domestic consumption, and th ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 11 days agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth Report

Permian Reserves May Be Much Smaller Than You Think

We are entering a new age of American energy dominance according to Energy Secretary  Rick Perry . President Trump reflected that view in  comments  he made last week that “…we've got underneath us more oil than anybody, and nobody knew it until five years ago.” Trump was referring to tight oil pr ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 29 days agoOpinion > Art BermanPermianPresident Trump

Shale Gas Is Not A Revolution

Shale gas is not a revolution. It's just another play with a somewhat higher cost structure but larger resource base than conventional gas. The marginal cost of shale gas production is $4/mmBtu despite popular but incorrect narratives that it is lower. The average spot price of gas has been $3.77 ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 1 month agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth ReportShale Gas

Energy Nonsense From the Wall Street Journal

The lead editorial in Friday's Wall Street Journal  was pure energy nonsense. “Lessons of the Energy Export Boom”  proclaimed that the United States is becoming the oil and gas superpower of the world. This despite the uncomfortable fact that it is also the world's biggest importer of crude oil. ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 2 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth ReportUSA +1

OPEC Extends Cuts, Oil Prices Fall: What It Means

OPEC extended oil production cuts last week and oil prices plunged. OPEC's goal was to keep a floor under current prices but the market expected the cartel to move prices higher through inventory reduction. OPEC was satisfied with greater revenues from higher prices compared to a year ago, but the ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 2 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth ReportOPEC

Strong Natural Gas Prices And Tight Supply In 2017

A year ago, most analysts were bearish about natural gas prices.    I wrote that natural gas prices might double and they did. Today, most analysts are again bearish about gas prices and again, I think that they are probably wrong at least for 2017. The mainstream narrative  is that new pipeline ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 3 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth Reportnatural gas

Oil Prices Plunge To Where They Should Be

WTI oil prices plunged to almost $45 per barrel yesterday (Figure 1). That was a downward adjustment to where prices should be based supply, demand and inventory fundamentals. Figure 1. Oil Prices Are Testing a $45 Floor. Source: EIA, CBOE, Bloomberg and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Ana ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 3 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth Reportoil price

OPEC Production Cuts and The Long Road To Market Balance

Global oil inventories are falling because of OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts but the road to market balance will be long. Production cuts have removed approximately 1.8 million barrels per day (mmb/d) of liquids from the world market since November 2016 (Figure 1). Figure 1. OPEC-NOPEC Have ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 3 months agoOpinion > The Petroleum Truth ReportArt BermanOPEC

Low Break-Even Prices Are For Everyone–Not Just Shale Companies

Shale companies have pushed break-even oil prices below $40 per barrel—but so have major oil companies. Analysts commonly portray cost reduction as something unique to the tight oil companies. Data from annual reports filed with the U.S. SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) suggests otherwise. ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 4 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth ReportShale +1

Shale Cost Reductions Are 10% Technology and 90% Industry Bust

I am tired of hearing about the unbelievable impact of technology on collapsing U.S. shale production costs. The truth is that these claims are  unbelievable. The savings are real but only about 10% is from advances in technology. About 90% is because the oil industry is in a depression and oil fi ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 4 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth ReportShale +1

Oil Prices Plunge: Over-Reaction or Turning Point?

Oil prices plunged yesterday. Is this an over-reaction or a turning point? WTI futures fell $2.86 from $53.14 to $50.28 per barrel, and Brent futures dropped $3.81 from $55.92 to $52.11 per barrel. WTI is trading below $49 and Brent, below $52 per barrel at this writing. The apparent cause was a ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 5 months agoOpinion > Art Bermanoil price

Don’t Hold Your Breath For $70 Oil

It is more likely that oil prices will fall below $50 per barrel than that they will continue to rise toward $70. Prices have increased beyond supply and demand fundamentals because of premature expectations about the effects of an OPEC production cut on oil inventories. Last week's 13.8 million b ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 6 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth Reportoil price

The Keystone XL Pipeline: A Risky Bet on Higher Oil Prices and Tight Oil

The Keystone XL Pipeline (KXL) is a bet on much higher oil prices several years from now.  It will take at least $85 oil prices to develop the new oil sand projects needed to fill the pipeline. It is also a bet that U.S. tight oil output will continue to grow and will need heavy oil to blend for ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 6 months agoOpinion > Art BermanKeystone XL Pipeline

The Days of Cheap Natural Gas Are Over

Natural gas prices averaged a little more than $2.50 per mmBtu (million British Thermal Units) in 2016. Those days are over. Prices will average at least $3.50 to $4.00 in 2017. Prices have more than doubled since March 2016 but gas is still under-valued. Supply is tight because demand and exports ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 6 months agoOpinion > Art BermanThe Petroleum Truth Reportnatural gas

Despite OPEC Production Cut, Another Year Of Low Oil Prices Is Likely

An OPEC production cut offers oil producers hope for higher prices in 2017. But there is a dark cloud hanging over that expectation. Global storage inventories must be substantially reduced before higher oil prices can be sustained. Some of U.S. tight oil has nowhere to go but into storage because ...

Art Berman - The Petroleum Truth Report


Posted 7 months agoOpinion > Art BermanOPEC