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S&P Global Platts Survey of Analysts Suggests U.S. EIA Data to Show 50-Bcf Build to Natural Gas Stocks


The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report a 50-billion cubic feet (Bcf) injection for the week that ended October 13, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts, the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets.

Responses to the survey ranged for a build of 43 Bcf to 58 Bcf. The EIA plans to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 am EDT Thursday.

A 50-Bcf injection would be more than the 77-Bcf injection reported at this time in 2016 and the five-year average injection of 78 Bcf.

An injection within analysts' expectations of 50 Bcf would expand stocks to 3.645 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). It would increase the deficit to the five-year average to 36 Bcf and also grow the deficit versus the corresponding week in 2016 to 180 Bcf. It would also measure much less than the injection reported the week prior.

For the week ended October 6 the EIA reported an 87 Bcf build that elevated inventories to 3.595 Tcf, which was 4.1% less than the year-ago inventory of 3.748 Tcf, and 0.2% less than the five-year average of 3.603 Tcf.

Average U.S. temperatures heated up last week, prompting a surge in demand, particularly in the EIA's South Central region.  

“On a U.S. population-weighted basis, temperatures over the course of the week averaged significantly higher than the average 62.8 degrees and last year's 64 degrees, at 69 degrees,” said Mitch DeRubis, a quantitative modeling analyst with S&P Global Platts. “While the South Central region injected an EIA-estimated 37 Bcf last year and 22 Bcf last week, the region is expected to have withdrawn 3 Bcf this week.”

Meanwhile, estimated production averaged 1.8 Bcf/d stronger this week than over the course of the same week last year, demand estimates were stronger by nearly 5.6 Bcf/d, with about half attributable to stronger liquefied natural gas (LNG) feedgas flows and half due to a 4.8 Bcf/d increase in power burn demand, which was partially offset by residential and commercial averaging about 2.1 Bcf/d lower.

The weekly analyst survey is conducted by the S&P Global Platts editorial team, and is published every Wednesday, one day ahead of the 10:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. 

Note: Bentek Energy, which along with Eclipse Energy Group, formed Platts Analytics. Bentek Energy was acquired by Platts in 2011. **In its weekly natural gas report, the EIA divides the U.S. into five storage regions: East, Midwest, South Central, Mountain and Pacific. The full listing of the states that comprise each can be found here.

CONTACT

Kathleen Tanzy, + 1 917 331 4607, kathleen.tanzy@spglobal.com

About S&P Global Platts

At S&P Global Platts, we provide the insights; you make better informed trading and business decisions with confidence. We're the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets. Customers in over 150 countries look to our expertise in news, pricing and analytics to deliver greater transparency and efficiency to markets. S&P Global Platts coverage includes oil and gas, power, petrochemicals, metals, agriculture and shipping.

S&P Global Platts is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies and governments to make decisions with confidence. For more information, visit www.platts.com.

 



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