· A new market forecast launched today by Westwood Global Energy Group sets out a positive outlook for the US Drilling & Completions Market between 2018-2022, based on a number of oil price scenarios.
- Expenditure on completions is out-pacing rig expenditure growth as wells become longer and more complex.
- Under Westwood's ‘consensus' oil price expectations, the US onshore market is likely to experience continued recovery and a period of sustained growth through to 2022.
- In the base case scenario, Oil Field Services (OFS) companies could benefit from expected expenditure of $554bn over 2018-2022, with completions accounting for the largest portion of spend.
Westwood Global Energy Group (Westwood), the energy market research consultancy, has published a new market outlook for the US Drilling & Completion Market for the period 2018-2022.
The report is the result of a collaboration between Westwood's expert OFS team and its most recent acquisition – US energy market research company, Energent. Using Energent's multi-million-well US onshore database, the report details activity and associated expenditure forecasts for six unconventional oil & gas plays: DJ-Niobrara, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, MidCon, Permian and Williston.
The report presents a detailed outlook for expected expenditure 2018-2022 across 17 key service and equipment lines such as tubing & casing, frac sand and pressure pumping. Importantly for OFS companies, it sees future expenditure weighted heavily towards equipment and services at the completions end of the market. For instance, in the DJ-Niobrara the average lateral length has increased 31 per cent to 8,114 ft over 2014- 2017. Meanwhile, completion expenditure will account for 64 per cent of overall Permian spending in 2017, up from 42 per cent in 2014.
All figures are based on an assessment of future oil prices that sees a gradual upwards increase within the $50-60/bbl range through to the end of the decade, before climbing to $68/bbl in 2022.
The report acknowledges that the market saw a particularly challenging period between 2014 and 2016 with a 79 per cent fall in drilling expenditure over the same period.
Looking forward, it projects a significant and strong period of growth and expenditure for the US onshore market between 2018-2022. Over the period, it expects a nine per cent annual growth rate in rig counts. And, of a total predicted expenditure of $554bn, it expects 66 per cent of it to be spent on completions (53 per cent in 2014) and 34 per cent on drilling (47 per cent in 2014).
Of the basins covered, it expects the Permian (in Western Texas and South East new Mexico) to account for 42 per cent of total forecast drilling and completions spend.
Steve Robertson, Head of OFS Research at Westwood Global Energy Group comments: “It's time to re-think how we measure OFS industry activity in North America. This report shows that the rig count is becoming less relevant and where we should focus our attention is well completions.
“The volume of data available is vast, millions of wells, and the ability to combine in-depth data with powerful analytics tools provided by Energent has been an exciting and insightful process for our team. The nature of well completions has seen some considerable development in recent years and we continue to track the market and advise our clients with keen interest and unique insights.”
To purchase a copy of the US Drilling and Completion Market Forecast 2018-2022 visit: http://www.douglas-westwood.com/report/oil-and-gas/us-drilling-completion-market-forecast-2017/
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