Rystad Energy forecasts projects holding 512 mmboe of recoverable liquids and gas resources could potentially reach final investment decisions (FIDs) within Australia & South East Asia during 2017.
After 2016's heavy gas binge (88%), 2017 sanctions are assessed to have a slight liquids flavor (58%). Indonesia and Vietnam are expected to lead these regions, accounting for almost 75% of the potential 2017 approvals. Most of the volumes fall within the offshore shelf (up to 125m water depth) segment, though Australia could see more onshore than offshore volumes sanctioned during 2017.
“This would be a significant drop from the 1835 mmboe sanctioned in these regions during 2016, though this trend is skewed by 2 gas megaprojects – BP's Tangguh expansion in Bintuni Bay of West Papua, Indonesia, and Petrovietnam's Block B-O Mon project offshore Vietnam”, says Readul Islam, Senior Analyst, Rystad Energy.
The two gas projects account for around 75% of the 2016 FIDs in volume terms.
The Rystad Energy 2017 FID forecast is the result of balancing project operator/partner/industry expectations versus following recent project news flow to assess candidate projects' chances of attaining 2017 FID.
Despite lower volumes expected to be sanctioned compared to 2016, the count of potential FIDs is higher in 2017. The greater diversity in project sizes could be a boon, particularly to smaller service players.
“Rystad Energy's 2017 FID forecast shows that the Australia & South East Asia regions certainly haven't gone into slumber following the price slump. The upside and downside risks to the FID forecast means all stakeholders will be eagerly following the development of 2017 approvals in these regions,” says Readul Islam.
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