In its recently published Europe Watch, ESAI Energy points out that North Sea crude and condensate production will remain more or less stable from 2017 to 2018 at under 2.9 million b/d, before declining marginally in 2019. Over this period, falling output in Norway and Denmark will offset growth in U.K. supply.
The recent start-up of a number of major projects in U.K. waters will boost 2018 production significantly. However, with only minor capacity additions expected in Norwegian territory, legacy declines at mature fields will drive a decline in Norway's output.
While North Sea production is expected to fall in 2019, ESAI Energy analyst Ian Page states that "any decline will only be temporary due to the late-2019 startup of the 440,000 b/d Phase 1 of Statoil's Johan Sverdrup mega-project.”
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