S&P Global Platts Survey of Analysts Suggests U.S. EIA Data to Show 66-Bcf Build to Natural Gas Stocks

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report a 66-billion- cubic-feet (Bcf) injection for the week that ended October 20, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts, the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets.

Responses to the survey were tight and ranged for a build of 61 Bcf to 69 Bcf. The EIA plans to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 am EDT Thursday.

A 66 Bcf injection would be less than the 74 Bcf injection reported at this time in 2016 as well as the five-year average injection of 75 Bcf.

An injection within analysts' expectations of 66 Bcf would expand stocks to 3.712 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). It would increase the deficit to the five-year average to 44 Bcf and also grow the deficit versus the corresponding week in 2016 to 187 Bcf. It would also measure more than the injection reported the week prior.

For the week ended October 13 the EIA reported a 51 Bcf build that elevated inventories to 3.646 Tcf, which was 4.7% less than the year-ago inventory of 3.825 Tcf, and 1% less than the five-year average of 3.681 Tcf.

“Week over week, the South Central region is expected to have accounted for the majority of the change in storage activity, having injected an estimated 23 Bcf compared to an EIA reported injection of 1 Bcf the week prior,” said Mitch DeRubis, a quantitative modeling analyst with S&P Global Platts. “Power demand in the Southeast region was the largest mover among all fundamental forecasts this week, averaging an estimated 2.1 Bcf/d back from the prior week's levels at 8.1 Bcf/d. Overall supply and demand implied storage estimates for the region suggest length of nearly 3.8 Bcf/d compared to the previous week as supply in the region also increased substantially compared to the previous week, mostly due to a rebound in offshore production.”

The weekly analyst survey is conducted by S&P Global Platts' editorial team, and is published every Wednesday, one day ahead of the 10:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. 

**In its weekly natural gas report, the EIA divides the U.S. into five storage regions: East, Midwest, South Central, Mountain and Pacific. The full listing of the states that comprise each can be found here.

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S&P Global PlattsEnergy Information Administration EIAEIAUnited Statesnatural gasStocks

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