Opinion

Oil price, Jersey Oil and Gas And finally…


 

Oil price

A bit of drift yesterday as markets read the final of the three monthlies, this one from the IEA and was more bearish than the others. It rather spoiled the party as it reduced demand forecasts although most other forecasts remained as before. The good news is that in all the years I have been following them the IEA are rarely correct and given how much it costs to run the organisation it is a total shambles.

Later in the day the inventory stats helped out a bit, after the API build the EIA reported a draw of 2.75m barrels higher than the whisper, gasoline added 2.5m barrels as refiners got back to normal utilisation rates of 89.2%.

Jersey Oil and Gas

I caught up with Andrew Benitz, CEO of JOG yesterday partly to see if he had come down yet and partly to see what, if any more news there was from the Verbier sidetrack. The answers are no and tight, Andrew is rightly very happy with the result but in terms of news Statoil will be working on the data from the well for a little while yet.

As a result there is little I can add to published information but I can give an idea of where JOG might go in the next few months. Assuming the data confirms existing numbers, and the Statoil news release was unusually forthcoming with regard to a need for an appraisal well, then the 25-130m bbls existing estimate should prove conservative. If that is the case, and it is not by any means certain, then there must be a chance of an exploration well on  the Cortina prospect which is of a similar nature and must have been de-risked by this well.

I think that based on admittedly limited information, JOG shareholders should be very happy, as the current information in my view validates the share price as it is now with the potential for a good deal more if Statoil “clarify the recoverable volumes and to refine this range,” as they say in their RNS.

With JOG still very much looking for production deals and now with potentially very exciting exploration upside I am extremely confident about the outlook and it more than justifies bucket list retention.

And finally...

The Cubs beat the Nats in game 5 last night so they advance to the NLCS to face the Dodgers. The Astros, having beaten the Red Sox, will face the Yankees after they won their game 5 against the Indians in Cleveland. Game 1 of that series is tonight.

The MotoGP moves to Japan on Sunday where Marc Marquez hopes to extend his 16 point lead in the Championship over Dovizioso with 4 rounds to go. Both Lorenzo and Rossi will be looking to atone for crashing out here last year, whilst Cal Crutchlow will want to improve on last year's 5th place.

It's back to the Prem this weekend and the standout game is the Red Devils vs the HubCap Stealers. Both sides have injury hit squads so it will be interesting to see how it goes. Elsewhere it's the claret and blue derby as Burnley entertain the Hammers, the Eagles have another easy game as the host Chelski. The Noisy Neighbours entertain the Potters, Spurs are back at fortress Wembley against the Cherries, the Gooners go to the Hornets, the Seagulls host the Toffees and the Magpies make the long journey to the Saints.

With Gordon Strachan being despatched the next Scottish football manager is being discussed, early favourites include David Moyes, Alex Mcleish, Paul Lambert and Big Sam Allardyce most of whom should send a shudder down the backs of the fans.

As we end the flat racing season it's the Dewhirst at Newmarket and ahead of next week's Champions Day it is future Champions weekend there and at York.

Finally Rugby Union starts the first European weekend with all sorts of new sides in the mix up.


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