Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Expected to Fall in 2017 But Rise in 2018

graph of energy-related co2 emissions, as explained in the article text

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook

Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell in both 2015 and 2016, and they are expected to fall again in 2017, based on forecasts in EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook. However, EIA forecasts a 2.2% increase in energy-related CO2 emissions in 2018. An annual increase is not without recent precedent; annual emissions rose in 2010, 2013, and 2014, although U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions have generally been declining since reaching their peak in 2007.

Weather is a key factor in annual changes in energy consumption and the resulting emissions. Weather-related energy demand can be estimated by changes in population-weighted degree days, which reflect deviations from a base temperature of 65 degrees Fahrenheit. Heating degree days estimate the need for heating-related energy demand on colder days, while cooling degree days indicate the need for cooling (air conditioning) on warmer days.

By the end of 2017, annual heating degree days are expected to have been higher than in 2016, and cooling degree days are expected to have been lower. EIA's short-term projections for heating and cooling degree days largely reflect a return to normal temperatures, based on the average of the previous 10 years. Consequently, in 2018, both heating and cooling demand are expected to increase, by 7.5% and 2.4%, respectively.

graph of heating and cooling degree days, as explained in the article text
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook

These increases are expected to drive more energy consumption for heating—fueled by natural gas, electricity, and other fuels—and more energy consumption for air conditioning—fueled mostly by electricity. Because about 63% of the electricity generated in the United States is from coal and natural gas, increases in electricity consumption also mean more emissions from coal and natural gas power plants.

In 2018, energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to increase for each fossil fuel—petroleum, natural gas, and coal—for a total increase of 111 million metric tons. The most recent year with emissions increases in all three fossil fuels was 2013, when emissions rose by 128 million metric tons from the previous year.

graph of annual change in energy-related co2 emissions, as explained in the article text
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook

Weather also plays a role in power generation from certain fuels. After two years of higher-than-average levels of precipitation in some areas, hydropower generation is projected to decrease in 2018 by 30 billion kilowatthours (kWh). Beyond hydro, increases in other renewable and nuclear generation (20 billion kWh and 4 billion kWh, respectively) are not enough to offset the expected hydropower decrease, leading non-carbon electricity generation to decline by 5 billion kWh. If realized, this would be the first annual decline in electricity generation from non-carbon sources since 2012.

Because total power generation is expected to increase in 2018, electricity generation from coal- and natural gas-fired sources is projected to increase by a combined 97 billion kWh. The resulting increase in coal and natural gas CO2 emissions in the power sector—28 million and 29 million metric tons, respectively—combined accounts for 52% of the total projected increase in energy-related emissions in 2018.

Principal contributor: Perry Lindstrom

Visit source site


EIACarbon DioxideEmissions

More items from oilvoice

Expro Launches Industry-Leading TCP Gun System For Extreme High Pressure Applications

Leading international oilfield services company, Expro, has launched a new extreme high pressure tubing conveyed perforating (TCP) gun system, delivering the largest perforation hole area available for frac and gravel pack completions. Designed specifically for challenging deep water environments ...

OilVoice Press - OilVoice

Posted 2 minutes agoPress > ExproExpro International GroupGeodynamics +2

Premier Oil: Catcher Update

The BW Catcher Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel arrived at the Catcher field at 23:00 on Wednesday 18 th October. The hook up of the Submerged Turret Production (STP) buoy mooring system was completed on the 19 th October with the vessel successfully completing a rotation ...

OilVoice Press - OilVoice

Posted 4 minutes agoPress > Premier OilCatcherSTP +2

September Unplanned Global Oil Supply Disruptions Fall to Lowest level Since January 2012

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook , October 2017 Note: OPEC disruptions include crude oil only; non-OPEC disruptions include crude oil and other liquid fuels. Unplanned global supply disruptions fell to 1.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in September ...

OilVoice Press - OilVoice

Posted 7 minutes agoOpinion > OPECEIAEnergy Information Administration EIA +6

EPI Group & ONYX Announce Partnership in Malaysia

EPI Group and Onyx IES Sdn. Bhd. (ONYX) are delighted to announce the formal signing of an agency agreement. ONYX now adds EPI Group to its formidable portfolio of services within Malaysia and are confident this agreement will provide strong opportunities for both companies and will provide a long a ...

OilVoice Press - OilVoice

Posted 10 minutes agoPress > EPI GroupONYXPartnership +1

FluidOil Limited: Appointment of Head of Engineering

FluidOil, the independent international heavy oil technology company, is delighted to welcome Howard Simons as a full-time member of the Company in the newly created role of Head of Engineering. For the past two years, Howard has worked with FluidOil as an external consultant, helping to operate ...

OilVoice Press - OilVoice

Posted 13 minutes agoPress > FluidOilEngineeringOil technology
All posts from oilvoice