Opinion

Oil Price, VOG, JOG, Aminex, Cabot, Podcast, And finally...


 

Oil Price

At last the price divergence between WTI and Brent is starting to narrow as we head towards the month and quarter end along with Brent expiry. This was mainly to do with the EIA inventory stats yesterday, they showed a draw of 1.85m barrels against expectations of a 3.4m build. We are still dealing with post hurricane effects though and gasoline stocks rose on bigger than expected run rates at the returning refineries. On the horizon one should watch for further trouble in Nigeria as new militant groups have been formed ahead of the 2018 Presidential elections, if they took out production then Brent would be the obvious beneficiary…

Victoria Oil & Gas

As we swing into the end of September and deadline dates for reporting results appear a flurry of reports arrive. As is usually the case these historic reports are important but also irrelevant, with so much news having come out since the end of June it is that investors are concentrating on. So, especially with VOG given recent announcements I have said pretty much all I can say at the moment. Production from Logbaba is rising and post the La-107 news should rise more in coming weeks, La-108 is being sidetracked and we wait news from there with interest. CEO Ahmet Dik confirms that ‘the company's long term ambition is to produce 100 mmscf/d and with Douala alone showing long term demand for 150 mmscf/d VOG is uniquely placed to be the dominant producer in the country'. For this reason and for the potential for Bomono (announced today that discussions are continuing and the option termination date has been extended to 31/12/17) and in Matanda, where initial seismic work is most positive I view VOG's prospects to be up there with any company I cover and today's share price fall can only be described as an opportunity…

Jersey Oil and Gas

As above, the interims from JOG are meaningless, the company has been carried in the so far unsuccessful Verbier well but the partners are awaiting news of the sidetrack which I expect any minute now. JOG has assembled a high quality team of industry experts and deserve credit for the work they have done in such a short time. The plans to extend the portfolio with exploration and production assets is still going strong and whatever Verbier delivers there will be more news from JOG before long. I am visiting the company next week and will report further after that.

Aminex

This year has been good for Aminex and with gas production of 15 mmcf/d expected to rise after further exploration success at Ntorya the outlook is also very positive. Resource estimates for the Ntorya field are now 1.3 TCF and development plans have been submitted along with application for a development licence. The company has paid down its debt, has net cash of $6.91m and highly supportive shareholders and so the outlook looks pretty good to me.

Cabot Energy

The turnaround at Cabot continues and validates the management's decision to concentrate on the workover programme in Canada. Production is 600-800 b/d (Cabot 75%) and will increase by another 200-250 barrels by the end of October, thus meeting the 800-1000 b/d year end target. The management at Cabot have done well as this very inexpensive added value in Canada looks like being the gift that keeps on giving.

Voxmarkets Podcast

Tuesday this week due to Monday being so busy, I looked at the beneficiaries of the recent oil price rise and also talk about VOG, AMER and Trinity

VOX Markets podcast: Malcy on Hurricane Energy, Victoria O&G, Amerisur Resources and Trinity E&P

And finally...

At the Oval yesterday England pulled off a last gasp Duckworth Lewis victory in the pouring rain. With rain approaching fast it was a battle of tactics and from a very strong position the Windies rather gave it away. To score 350 odd for 5 having been 33-3, with Gayle back in the hutch, was very impressive but ultimately it was tactics wot done it. As for Stokesy words cannot convey the stupidity of it all.

Last night all three British teams went through in the Champions League in good order, tonight in the Boropa Cup the Gooners are sending the junior team to Belarus apparently whilst the Toffees host Apollon Limassol.



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