DW Monday: Super Pumas Grounded – Western Europe Heavy Helicopter Supply Scenarios

The fatal helicopter crash in April 2016 near Turøy, Norway, involving the H225 / EC225, has created uncertainty surrounding the future supply of Airbus's heavy aircraft. In spite of the European safety regulator's decision to lift the flight ban on the Super Puma models, the Super Pumas continue to be grounded by the UK and the Norwegian Civil Aviation Authorities, with operators such as Statoil dropping the Super Pumas for good.

In its soon to be published World Offshore Helicopters Market Forecast 2017-2021, Douglas-Westwood (DW) has analysed the impact of the H225 issues. Should the grounding of the H225 continue, the most significant effect would be seen in Western Europe. As of December 2016, the H225 alone accounts for 65% of the region's total large helicopter supply. In 2016, helicopter utilisation across the medium (including next generation medium) and large aircraft is estimated to have averaged 58%. The large segment is anticipated to have seen a higher utilisation at 68%, compared to medium units at 49%. This implied utilisation rate is inclusive of the 52 Airbus Super Puma units in Western Europe.

In 2017, DW forecasts large helicopter utilisation at 59%. In the event that all 52 units are removed from Western Europe's supply, the utilisation rate is projected to improve considerably to 105% for large helicopters (i.e. implying a slight under-supply) – the most significant increase in utilisation compared to other regions.

Western Europe Large Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2012-2021
Western Europe Large Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2012-2021

This undersupply in Western Europe creates an opportunity for helicopter manufacturers to address the potential gap in the market. The undersupply would most likely be met by a combination of large helicopters from other regions and a surplus of medium and next generation medium aircraft already in Western Europe. As of December 2016, CHC has announced its new contract with Wintershall Norge As for the provision of helicopter drilling support services off Norway using a Sikorsky S-92 from March 2017.

Whilst the market for helicopter support services has been hit significantly since the oil price crash, and recent helicopter accidents have amplified this effect, for some aircraft manufacturers, the potential of a shift from an oversupply to undersupply will present opportunities for suitably-placed suppliers.

Marina Ivanova, Analyst London
+44 208 3823 684 or Marina.Ivanova@douglaswestwood.com

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