Opinion

Oil price, Aminex, Cabot Energy, Sundry-Falcon-Columbus- And finally…


Oil price

The oil price rose again reaching levels last seen on 6th of June but Brent also hitting the big figure obstacle which it has struggled to break through in recent  attempts. The EIA inventory stats were mainly full of good news, the crude draw of 4.7m barrels was 1.2m more than forecasts while gasoline drew 4.4m against expectations of only 0.7m, and distillates fell 2.1m against a consensus rise of 1.2m. The products crack spread was at its highest since November 2016 meaning that refining margins are very healthy at the moment.

The only fly in the EIA's ointment was the US production number which at 9.43m b/d was at a level not seen since July 2015. It is an important few days, Monday sees the Opec/Non-Opec meeting in St Petersburg at which some industry commentators feel that more action might happen although robust comments from Libya overnight indicate bringing them or Nigeria into the fold may be hard work.

Aminex

A general  update from Aminex this morning but all the information is very welcome. They announce that they have received a payment from the TPDC for Kiliwani gas sales and whilst unspecified in amount is good news, we are also reminded that the company has a strong balance sheet and is debt free. Kiliwani North 1 is continuing to average production of  15 MMcf/d this year. Elsewhere in the Ruvuma area the company are ‘fully engaged' on its updated basin model and its gas development plan is being prepared by the io consultancy. Both this and the submission of the Ntorya FDP are expected to be submitted in ‘early September'.

Cabot Energy

A production and operations update from Cabot this morning which shows that significant progress continues to be made, primarily in Canada. Production is in line with guidance at 550 b/d (75% WI) and with two wells recently acquired requiring routine maintenance should add another 80 b/d gross to the company. The summer workover programme is targeting 300 b/d at a net cost of $2.6m and should mean that Canadian production gets to 800-1,000 b/d on a gross basis. With the 130 boe/d of gas from Civita  CAB is building ‘ increasingly material cashflow, even at current oil prices', according to CEO Keith Bush. There is much other work going on at the company such as the Virgo well programme and I expect more good news from Cabot in the coming months.

Sundry

I mentioned Falcon the other day and a quick erratum, the first part of the comments I made are being used by Justice Pepper but are from the Hawke report. The points I would like to make today are two fold, firstly that Origin conducted a press briefing yesterday that has led to a number of significant press articles, from what I can see are unanimously positive about the outlook both for the companies involved but also for domestic gas supply in Australia. Secondly I understand that it has been quite difficult to pick up news about this report and its ramifications, I hope that now that there is so much in the Aussie press people can get a better idea of what the report has indicated. I remain of the view that whilst some political risk remains, the upside for FOG should be very substantial indeed.

I met with Leo Koot, CEO of Columbus Energy Resources yesterday for a general round up as it is a little while since he started and clearly he and his management team are making significant progress in upgrading the portfolio and assessing best opportunities. CERP is definitely one for the watch list as I am very impressed by Mr Koot and of course his new team here and on the ground in Trinidad.

And finally…

The Open Championship has started this morning at Royal Birkdale, unsurprisingly in the pouring rain. With not all the players yet to even go out the leader as I write is Ian Poulter but with a very long way to go.

With the pre-season friendlies under way it is not long until the proper action gets going, for those of you in Houston you could go along and watch the Red Devils play the Noisy Neighbours tonight.

With the T20 blast well underway it was interesting to see Surrey v Essex last night where you know who, none other than KP turned out, with a lightning 52 including five 6's, four of which came in one over and got Surrey home.



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