Posted by Malcolm Graham-Wood - Malcy's Blog
The April Brent contract rolled over yesterday, in itself a quite exciting pattern of trading by recent standards. The independent surveyors I was talking about the other day started promptly with Reuters first out of the blocks to give a 94% adherence to quotas in February. The USA provides the counterbalance, production rates are rising but nowhere near enough to do anything more than marginally affect world supply and demand. Stocks are still building though and the API reported a rise of 2.5m in crude oil stocks with 500/- at Cushing and with gasoline stocks unexpectedly up and distillates sharply down traders were perplexed. Now March is a traditionally difficult time to call movements upstream or downstream, historically it is a peak month for refinery maintenance so crude stocks build but hopefully product stocks fall, we shall see.
IGas had notified the market that they hoped to find a strategic investor and this morning have revealed that Kerogen Capital is the benefactor to the tune of $35m. This looks like a true and total capital reorganisation and needs the support of all stakeholders for want of a horrible word. Existing bonds will be restructured and the company owned ones will be cancelled while the unsecured bonds exercised and covenant breaches got rid of. We are warned that there will be an accompanying equity raise by June and will include an offer to the retail holders probably via the 5m Euro cap issuance. With a big carry and some interesting prospects to drill, some this year but a bigger programme for next year, on a D&M valuation down but still substantial and with 2,500 b/d a day of production to leverage off things could be worse. IGas had an unsustainable financial structure and was borderline terminal, this restructuring, backing from Kerogen and with an equity raise, at least gives the company another chance. The huge fall today on dilution of existing holders is understandable, but longer term the stock should rally with the finances sorted, the carry still in place and signs of a drilling programme through next year giving room for optimism.
Drip, drip, drip as the debt restructuring comes out piecemeal, today we hear that the amended convertible terms have been agreed by the Ad Hoc committee that speaks for 47% of holders and should do the trick. With the monthly deferral of the financial covenant test as expected we now wait for next piece of the jigsaw, after that just the huge equity raise, only joking, or was I?
A South Disouq update from SDX today, the Sino-Tharwa 6 drilling rig is currently being moved to location with the expected commencement of drilling ‘within the next fortnight'. Exciting times for SDX who have a number of high margin plays with serious upside that should justify the ever rising share price.
Yesterday WRL had figures that seemed to answer quite a few of the questions that I have had since starting coverage recently. Production for the period was 44 mcf/d pretty much in the middle of the guidance and rising strongly at the year end. With demand expected to rise and substantial capacity with very low capex the future seems to be of significant interest. My worry about funding was generally eased during the conference call and I am more satisfied than before as to the need for short term funding after seeing smaller L/T receivables, better timing on payments and amended payments from the bank. I look forward to another meeting with the company to settle down my numbers, overall still very happy with this company.
As usual I did my Voxmarkets Podcast on Monday morning, if you didnt catch it the link is below, I talk about Sirius Petroleum, President Energy and Far, the link is below.
Bowleven has announced that both the ISS and PIRC have come out in their favour after assessing the COC resolutions with one exception, where PIRC feel that Philip Tracy is not a fully independent director.
I met with Northern Petroleum yesterday and will write up that meeting in due course, suffice it to say that they are feeling much more confident than for some time. Today they announce that Shell have started the local engagement programme in Italy which at least shows that things are, albeit slowly, beginning to happen.
I mentioned a little while ago that a newspaper had tipped David Peattie to be the next CEO of the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority and that his days as Chairman of Independent Oil & Gas were likely to be numbered, the company felt that he would stay on which I couldnt understand and today he has announced both his new job and his resignation from IOG. I wait with interest to see who his replacement is…
It's all happening down at the Foxes, after Monday night's spirited defeat of the HubCap Stealers they are now talking to Woy H, after all the success he's had lately….
Tonight the Noisy Neighbours have their FA Cup replay against Huddersfield which is just what they didnt need.
And with the new F1 season looming, yesterday saw the Ferraris leading the way and McLaren having some troubles, not for long I suspect….
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