Over the next year, Europe will import less gasoil while exporting smaller volumes of gasoline, according to ESAI Energy's latest Global Fuels Outlook. In this publication, ESAI Energy analyst Ian Page points out that “this reduction in European diesel imports and gasoline exports will have a major impact on global trade flows in 2019.”
Since the FSU and Middle East, which are on track to export over 1 million b/d of diesel to Europe this year, will have more to export next year, competition to place excess barrels in a shrinking European market will become more intense. Meanwhile, Europe's exportable gasoline surplus will keep shrinking due to a combination of falling regional supply, resurgent demand, shrinking import requirements in export markets, and competition from other producers. The Middle Eastern gasoline market, which has relied on imports heavily to meet demand, will become more self-sufficient, and European gasoline will be backed out of Asian and Latin American markets.