Temporary North Sea Shut-ins Increased Disruptions in Global Crude Supply

Posted by Kayrros


Kayrros global oil field activity monitoring using advanced data analytics revealed a number of changes in the number of barrels of production lost to disruption during the period from April 30 to May 3:
    • Disruptions in Libya dipped slightly to 118 kb/d.
      • The Elephant field (El-Feel field) remains shut down.
      • A cargo plane to the Sharara oil field crashed close to the field on April 29, according to the Libyan national oil company. Air cargo has been adopted to supply the field as ground transportation frequently suffers from roadblocks and security threats.
    • Disruptions in Iraq remained at 123 kb/d.
      • Production at the Bai Hassan field remained shut down.
      • An estimated total of 80 kb/d was sent by truck to local refineries from the fields in the Kirkuk Area.
      • An additional 30 to 60 kb/d was expected to go to Iran, under a swap agreement that could allow Bai Hassan and Kirkuk Avana to make a full recovery in the near future.
    • There were no disruptions in Iran, although this could change following the US decision to reimpose sanctions on May 8.
  • Disruptions in Algeria increased to 60 kb/d with the output from the 14 kb/d Zotti oil field remaining disrupted for the second consecutive week.
  • The North Sea saw temporary disruptions while takeaway capacity in North America remained constrained.
    • In the UK, disruptions rose by an estimated 58 kb/d as a suspected gas leak shut down the Chevron Alba Northen platform on April 28. Production was resumed four days later after no evidence of the leak was found.
    • Western Canadian Select confirmed gains with the discount to WTI narrowing to $-16 a barrel on May 1. This might encourage heavy oil producers to resume growth. 
    • The Midland-Cushing price differential dropped again to $-9.5 a barrel on May 3 after a brief recovery earlier in the week. Choked Permian production looms as current infrastructure may not be able to sustain production growth.

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