Opinion

Oil price, Hurricane Energy, Pantheon Resources, Sound Energy, And finally...


Oil price

There is little doubt that less than 24 hours away from one of the most crucial Opec meetings in recent history few if any people know what the outcome might be, and i'm talking participants as well as spectators here. In Vienna even a chance chat over a coffee is ‘an official meeting' so yesterday was full of such discussions sometimes by phone. So, President Putin ‘met with' President Rouhani and agreed to ‘coordinate' their production, the Iranian delegation met with the Iraqi delegation and the former spent most of the meeting on the phone, likely receiving instructions. Iraq has been more amenable deal-wise, Iran less so I understand.

As has almost always been the case, the bottom line is totally dependent on what the Saudis want, after all the weight of any cuts which are ‘agreed' will fall on their shoulders. Dont forget that the corporate finance department of the KSA will be whispering in their ears about how much easier the Aramco IPO will go at $60…..

If the statement starts off something like this ‘we are all confident that the oil market is re-balancing satisfactorily on its own', head for the hills.

Hurricane Energy

There are fewer more interesting sights in the oil industry than watching the good Doctor Trice on the move when he spots an opportunity. After an incredibly busy few weeks in which Lancaster has gone from being a mere discovery to what might be a West of Shetlands hub, with wells on Lincoln underway and Halifax as of yesterday confirmed with the Transocean Spitsbergen next, what more might come out? Of course, how silly of me not to think that with all this going on and an imminent FID on Lancaster and first oil due in 2019, HUR would need an FPSO. Cue this mornings announcement, whereby the company announced that they had hired the BES  Aoka Mizu FPSO for the Lancaster EPS and up to ten years more if signed by this time next year. That of course means that first oil in 2019 is more likely, assuming that Lancaster gets the go-ahead next year, would we ever doubt it. Oh yes and in the middle of all that they raised £75m just to be going on with…Mind you, with all this drilling, head office will be quiet over Christmas…

Pantheon Resources

An operational update this morning but one which should never have been, at least not right now. The company has a bunch of meetings slated with its shareholders and I suspect that the Nomad or other advisors felt that they should go ahead even if it meant that the operational news is made to look distinctly second rate.

The announcement says that the VOBM#3 well flow testing is ongoing and that the data so far is ‘inconclusive' with 1,500 mcf/d of natural gas and 274-740 b/d of 51º API oil but the ratio of gas to liquids needs stabilising and more work needs to be done. Frac fluids from a one-ff are only 60% recovered and it needs to be cleaned up and needs diagnostics. The company are saying that the well will be a commercial well but maybe just not as good as the VOBM#1 well to the East. Indeed, there is every likelihood that they have just found themselves right on the edge of the reservoir and that's it. With gas processing, probably now by a third party and the third option in terms of selection next spring will see production and netbacks improved should this option be chosen.

The market has made its decision and PANR are off a short 20% today and to be frank that's probably about right. The final knowledge about the well is a way off and it's much easier to mark down than hope that all will be ok. The next few weeks now become more crucial, this well needs cleaning up big time and the VOBM#4 will be on us like Christmas in Texas. The more I look at this the more I think that although it was important to meet shareholders I would have done it later, if the story has legs, which I still believe it does then they will understand. This has been compounded by the last fiasco and why I can understand what they have done today, make no mistake I am still a believer, I think that they have cracked the code and that Jay and the operating team are onto something here and it will be worthwhile. Shame about the messaging though.

Sound Energy

Sound has announced this morning that they have confirmed the previous MOU with Pergemine and contracted a rig for the Badile exploration well. The rig is in Italy and will mobilise in January and be available for spudding 1Q 2017.

Voxmarkets Podcast

This week's podcast is below, I start with some thoughts about Opec then talk about momentous moves from Sound Energy (mins 6.40) and Ithaca Energy (mins 9.50)

Vox Markets podcast: includes Malcy on Sound Energy and Ithaca Energy

And finally… 

India are now 2-0 up in the test series with two to play and the English players have been told that they can go on holiday before the next test. They are already on **** holiday staying in 5 star luxury and playing their favourite game. Maybe they should have been told that the nets was as good a place in the sun to be until the next test…

Its the Michael Mouse Cup again tonight and the draw has put up the Hull City Tigers against the Magpies and the HubCap Stealers against the Peacocks, enjoy….


Visit source site

malcysblog.com/2016/11/oil-price-hurricane-energy-...
oil priceHurricane EnergyPantheon ResourcesSound EnergyUnited KingdomFinancePodcast

More items from malcy


Oil price, Rockhopper, Sound Energy, And finally…

Oil price A mixed day yesterday, it might have been worse as the EIA inventory stats were worse than forecast at a build of 4.95m barrels against expectations of +1.77m. Crude did stage a late comeback which saved the day to a certain extent. More on the OGA licences later when I have looked at th ...

Malcolm Graham-Wood - Malcy's Blog


Posted 11 hours agoOpinion > Malcy's BlogRockhopper ExplorationSound Energy +1

Oil price, Far Limited, RockRose Energy, IGas Energy, Solo Oil, plus links on SAVP-SDX-IGas- And finally…

Oil price Yesterday was a bad day for oil, not because it fell but more as it started brightly moving up on general news from Russia and sundry participants that a roll over was increasingly likely at the May meeting. During the day announcements from Libya that it was increasing production (somet ...

Malcolm Graham-Wood - Malcy's Blog


Posted 22 hours agoOpinion > FARRockRose EnergyIGas +2

Oil price, SDX Energy, Bowleven, And finally...

Oil price Last week oil prices started off in the weak manner of previous form but ended rallying a little and both WTI and Brent were marginally up by the close on Friday. It's not an easy call at the moment, the dollar is under a bit of pressure, inventory numbers look a little more helpful, exc ...

Malcolm Graham-Wood - Malcy's Blog


Posted 3 days agoOpinion > Malcy's BlogSDX EnergyBowLeven

Oil price, Tullow, IGas, Range Resources, Sundry-BP/Ineos- And finally…

Oil price All quiet on the oil price front although the IEA report was marginally positive suggesting that Opec were at 98% 0f quotas and although they cut their world oil demand growth for this year a touch. The main supporter of the Opec output fall is the KSA who are leading by example having r ...

Malcolm Graham-Wood - Malcy's Blog


Posted 5 days agoOpinion > oil priceMalcy's BlogIGas +3

Oil price, Amerisur, Sundry delayed comment-Sound-VOG-Premier-BLVN-Faroe-Cape-Savannah-Pantheon-President-And finally…

Oil price Yesterday was the first up day for over a week as inventories came to the rescue and various reports were a tad more bullish about the market stocks position. The EIA reported a small draw of 237/- barrels in crude oil against market guesses of a build of 3.3m or more, and the position ...

Malcolm Graham-Wood - Malcy's Blog


Posted 7 days agoOpinion > Malcy's BlogAmerisur ResourcesSound Energy +7
All posts from malcy