U.S. Natural Gas Production and Consumption Increase in Nearly All AEO2018 Cases

U.S. natural gas production, as explained in the article text

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2018

EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2018 (AEO2018) projects that U.S. dry natural gas production will increase through 2050 across a wide variety of alternative assumptions about the future. In the Reference case, which is based on current laws and regulations, production grows 59% from 2017 to 2050, starting at 73.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017 and reaching 118 Bcf/d in 2050. In sensitivity cases with different assumptions for natural gas resources and extraction technology, natural gas production also increases through the forecast period, although at different rates.

Beyond 2020, natural gas production grows faster than consumption in all cases except the Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, where production and consumption remain relatively flat because of higher production costs. In the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, with lower production costs, natural gas production grows to 151 Bcf/d in 2050, more than double the 2017 rate of natural gas production.

Although most of the projected production growth in AEO2018 cases comes from the Marcellus and Utica plays in the Appalachian region, associated natural gas from the Permian region in Texas and New Mexico is also projected to be a significant contributor.

In all AEO2018 cases except the Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, EIA projects Henry Hub spot natural gas prices to remain lower than $6.00/million British thermal units (in 2017 dollars) through 2050. Near-term production growth across all cases is supported by growing demand in an environment of low and stable natural gas prices in both domestic and international markets.

U.S. natural gas consumption by sector, as explained in the article text
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2018

The AEO2018's projected increase in domestic natural gas consumption is driven by the industrial and electric power sectors. The U.S. industrial sector, which includes both lease and plant fuel and liquefaction fuel for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, currently consumes more natural gas than any other sector, and its natural gas consumption is projected to grow faster than in any other sector. EIA expects a 34% increase in industrial natural gas consumption in the Reference case—from 9.8 Bcf/d in 2017 to 13.2 Bcf/d in 2050.

The AEO2018 Reference case projects natural gas to remain the leading source of electricity generation in the United States through 2050, accounting for 35% of electricity generation, an increase from 31% in 2017. Projected natural gas growth in electric power generation is supported by increased competitiveness with renewables after the expiration of renewable tax credits in the mid-2020s and the relatively low forecast natural gas prices throughout the projection.

EIA expects natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to remain relatively flat, despite growth in population, because of efficiency gains in natural gas-consuming equipment such as furnaces, boilers, and water heaters. Continued population shifts away from the colder Northeast to warmer regions in the southern and western United States also reduce overall demand for space heating needs, much of which are currently met with natural gas.

U.S. natural gas trade, as explained in the article text
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2018

After becoming a net natural gas exporter in 2017, U.S. natural gas exports continue to rise throughout the projection period in the Reference case. Both LNG and pipeline exports to Mexico continue to increase because of increased demand from Mexico's natural gas-fired power plants. However, pipeline exports to Mexico are expected to gradually decrease after 2030 as Mexican energy reforms take hold and Mexican production reverses its current declines.

Although LNG exports from the United States increase through the 2020s as more export terminals come online following the opening of the Sabine Pass and Cove Point LNG export terminals, U.S. LNG exports level off as U.S.-sourced LNG becomes less price competitive with increasing LNG supply from other global suppliers.

Principal contributors: Kristen Tsai, Peter Gross

New service from OilVoice
Trip Shepherd is for companies who need to track their staff in areas of risk.
It's free to use, so we invite you to try it.

Visit source site


United Statesnatural gasUSgasProductionConsumptionEIAEnergy Information Administration EIAMexico

More items from oilvoice

Cyber Security Experts Unite to Protect Europe’s Critical Industries

CS4CA Summit Returns to London this October Staying abreast of fast-paced industry developments is crucial for cyber security professionals. And while one can learn a lot from publications and social media, it's hard to beat the value of insights gained first-hand from peers. This is why 150+ IT ...

OilVoice Press - OilVoice

Posted 1 year agoPress > cybereurope

Africa E&P Summit

The organisers of the Africa E&P Summit are bringing together Africa's leading exploration companies and governments, just one of the many reasons why you should be attending frontier's event that they are organising and hosting in London at the IET: Savoy Place, 22-23 May. Over 200 key senior exec ...

OilVoice Press - OilVoice

Posted 1 year agoPress > Africasummitoil summit +2

Equinor Deepens in Offshore Wind in Poland

Equinor has exercised an option to acquire a 50 % interest in the offshore wind development project Bałtyk I in Poland from Polenergia. This transaction is a follow-up of the agreement between the two companies which came into force in May 2018 , by which Equinor acquired a 50 % inter ...

OilVoice Press - OilVoice

Posted 1 year agoPress > EquinorEquinor EnergyPoland +2

Nigeria has highest capex on crude and natural gas projects in sub-Saharan Africa Over Next Seven Years, says GlobalData

Nigeria accounts for more than 34% of the proposed capital expenditure (capex) on planned and announced crude and natural gas projects in the sub-Saharan Africa over the period 2018–2025, according to GlobalData , a leading data and analytics company. The company's report: ‘H2 2018 Production ...

OilVoice Press - OilVoice

Posted 1 year agoOpinion > GlobalDataNigeriaCrude +5

CNOOC Signs Strategic Cooperation Agreements with 9 International Oil Companies

HONG KONG, Dec. 18, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- CNOOC Limited (the "Company", SEHK: 00883, NYSE: CEO, TSX: CNU) announced today that its parent company, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), has signed Strategic Cooperation Agreements with 9 international oil companies including: Chevron, Conoco ...

OilVoice Press - OilVoice

Posted 1 year agoPress > CNOOCChina National Offshore Oil CorporationChevron +11
All posts from oilvoice