Analysis of upstream crude oil production shows that over $39.2bn in capital expenditure (capex) is forecast to be spent by ExxonMobil on oil projects over the next four years to ensure that its production remains around 2.1 million barrels per day (mmbd) in 2021. The Upper Zakum field would drive the company's oil production with over 8.3 percent share of all production in 2021, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

ExxonMobil has participation in about 546 fields, which are expected to have an equity weighted production of over 2.1 mmbd in 2021, with new projects contributing about 62.5 thousand barrels per day (mbd).

Conventional oil fields are forecast to be responsible for 1.2 mmbd of production in 2021 while heavy oil will contribute 84.6 mbd. Onshore fields will produce 1.1 mmbd, which accounts to half of the total crude produced by the ExxonMobil- operated fields.

ExxonMobil is expected to spend $39.2bn over the next four years on crude projects, with capex peaking in 2021 at $10.8bn. Chad is expected to have the highest remaining capex per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) with US$40.5/boe, followed by the UK and the Netherlands with US$37.3/boe, and US$28.3/boe, respectively.

Among the fields in which ExxonMobil has equity stake, the shallow water Upper Zakum field in United Arab Emirates is the major oil producing field with contribution to ExxonMobil of about 172.9 mbd of oil in 2021. The project has a remaining break-even oil price of $5 per barrel and ADNOC Offshore is the operator of this shallow water field.

The Kearl Oil Sands Project in Canada is another major onshore oil producing field, which is expected to contribute about 153.5 mbd of oil to ExxonMobil in 2021. Imperial Oil Ltd is the current operator of this field, which has the remaining break-even oil price of $38 per barrel.

The company-operated Permian Basin Unconventional in the US is the next major onshore oil producing field, which is expected to contribute around 145.6 mbd of oil in 2021 with the remaining break-even of $48 per barrel.