Opinion

Oil Price, Genel, Prospex Oil & Gas/Po Valley, And Finally…


WTI $63.95 -2c, Brent $69.31 -7c, Diff -$5.36 -5c, NG $3.19 -4c

Oil Price

Conflicting news yesterday which has knocked oil prices a modest amount today. The Opec report was mainly positive and although they said that higher oil prices are bringing supplies onto the market, that is countered by global demand rising faster than non-Opec supply. The EIA monthly report is not so bullish, saying as it does the US supply is going to rise faster than demand, such is a market made. Their inventory report was positive though as crude drew 6.7m barrels against a forecast 2.1m including a most pleasing draw in Cushing at 4.6m. Unsurprisingly gasoline added 3.6m, its hardly driving weather, but it is heating weather and distillates drew 3.9m against a forecast build, what analysts made that call?

On a technical basis it is now clear that the resistance encountered should serve as a ceiling for the time being but there are enough geopolitical banana skins to make going short this market quite some risk. Such a problem is indicated by the statement from the Niger Delta Avengers yesterday who warned that forthcoming attacks ‘would be most deadly', upcoming elections are unlikely to be peaceful.

Genel Energy

Genel has announced a Bina Bawi and Miran West gas resource resource update by RPS. The company suggest that this is a ‘significant' update to 2C gross raw gas resource estimates. At 14,792 Bscf ex condensate the number is up 40% which is clearly good news. In an obfuscating statement I think Genel are trying to say that the gas is a genuine mid to long term significant positive for the company which it certainly is.

Prospex Oil & Gas/Po Valley

PXOG, via operator PVE has announced a ‘significant' and commercial gas discovery onshore Italy with their Podere Maiar-1d well in the Selva gas field. C2 (net pay 25.5m) 148,136 scm/d and C1 (15.5m) 129,658bscm/d.

As it happens I visited with Prospex yesterday and met with CEO Edward Dawson, I had been looking forward to meeting up as his story is one of interest and of course so is the Po Valley play given current corporate events occuring. The Prospex portfolio is not your standard one, covering as it does Italy, Spain and Romania concentrating on the Foredeep play and having had good results in both Romania and now Italy.

The jury is out on the size of this discovery, PVE don't appear besotted by it but they have plenty of fish to fry at the moment. On the contrary, PXOG is looking forward to the short term as Chairman Bill Smith says “The year ahead will not be short of high impact newsflow, as we focus on exposing our shareholders to near term value trigger events, such as drilling and first production.”

And Finally...

It is wrong and discourteous to say that there isn't a stand out fixture in the Prem this weekend but put it this way the most difficult forecast is probably the Red Devils at Burnley. The Noisy Neighbours host the Magpies, the HubCap Stealers are at the Swans on Monday, Chelski are at the Seagulls, the Gooners entertain the Eagles and Spurs go to the Saints, get my drift?

Good jumps racing from Ascot at Haydock which hosts the legendary Peter Marsh chase.

And in the cricket this morning England went 2 up in the 5 match series with a comfortable win against the Aussies, the white ball doesn't give England the heebies as the red one does...



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