Opinion

S&P Global Platts Survey of Analysts Suggests U.S. EIA Data to Show 12-Bcf Build to Natural Gas Stocks


WASHINGTON (November 8, 2017) – The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report a 12-billion cubic feet (Bcf) injection for the week that ended November 3, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts, the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets.

Responses to the survey were ranged for a build of 1 Bcf to 21 Bcf. The EIA plans to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 am EDT Thursday.

A 12 Bcf injection would be much less than the 54 Bcf- injection reported at this time in 2016 as well as the five-year average injection of 45 Bcf.

An injection within analysts' expectations of 12 Bcf would expand stocks to 3.787 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). It would increase the deficit to the five-year average to 74 Bcf and move the deficit versus the corresponding week in 2016 to 22 Bcf. It would also measure substantially lower than the injection reported the week prior.

For the week ended October 27 the EIA reported a 65 Bcf build that elevated inventories to 3.775 Tcf, which was 4.6% less than the year-ago inventory of 3.955 Tcf, and 1.1% less than the five-year average of 3.816 Tcf.

“Week over week, the largest change in overall storage activity is estimated to have occurred in the Midwest region, where an injection of only 4 Bcf is forecast compared to an EIA announced injection of 25 Bcf the week prior,” said Mitch DeRubis, a quantitative modeling analyst, S&P Global Platts.

The next largest change in storage activity is expected to have occurred in the South Central region, where an injection of 11 Bcf is expected compared to an EIA announced injection of 25 Bcf the week prior. Sample activity in the salt-dome facilities showed a net-injection down about 34% from the previous week's sample total, at a net-injection of 9.5 Bcf, while non-salt activity totaled near zero net activity at a net-injection of only 0.2 Bcf.

Also, the East region sample posted its first net-withdrawal of the season at 1 Bcf. The Columbia Gas Transmission storage system withdrawal of 3.2 Bcf drove the sample into negative territory. Every field in the region posted weaker injections, or flipped to net-withdrawals over the course of the week.

The weekly analyst survey is conducted by S&P Global Platts' editorial team, and is published every Wednesday, one day ahead of the 10:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. 

 

Note: Bentek Energy, which along with Eclipse Energy Group, formed Platts Analytics. Bentek Energy was acquired by Platts in 2011. **In its weekly natural gas report, the EIA divides the U.S. into five storage regions: East, Midwest, South Central, Mountain and Pacific. The full listing of the states that comprise each can be found here.


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S&P Global PlattsS&PEnergy Information Administration EIAEIAnatural gasNatural Gas Stocks

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