- EIA assumes OPEC members will mostly adhere to announced cuts during the first two months of the agreement (May and June) and that production compliance will relax later in the forecast period as stated production cuts are reduced and global oil demand begins growing.
- From that point, EIA expects a gradual increase in OPEC crude oil production through the remainder of the forecast, and EIA expects production to rise to an average of 28.5 million b/d during the second half of 2021.
- EIA expects the steepest declines in U.S. crude oil production will be in the second quarter of 2020; during those three months, EIA forecasts monthly declines to average 0.5 million b/d.
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