- EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2019 (AEO2019) Reference case projects that U.S. tight oil production, which became the more common form of oil production in 2015, will continue to increase through 2030, ultimately reaching more than 10 million barrels per day (b/d) in the early 2030s.
- EIA projects further U.S. tight oil production growth as the industry continues to improve drilling efficiencies and reduce costs, which makes developing tight oil resources less sensitive to oil prices than in the past.
- In the Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, which uses more pessimistic technology and resource assumptions than the Reference case, tight oil production still increases from its current level through the early 2020s before gradually declining through 2050.
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