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Your Weekly Update: 31 December 2018 - 4 January 2019


  • The market swang from balanced supply/demand to a supply crunch to a glut – dealing with American sanctions on Iranian crude exports, surging American crude oil production, the implosion of Venezuela's economy and signs that the global economy might be entering a slowdown.
  • Sometime in the first quarter, American crude oil production will hit 12 mmb/d, cementing its position as the world's largest oil producer as Saudi Arabia and Russia cut back output as part of the OPEC+ supply deal.
  • Perhaps for petrochemical use, but refining demand will increasingly be geared toward medium and heavier grades to be cracked by upgraded refineries into gasoil ahead of the IMO's new rules of fuel oil and sulfur levels rolling out in 2020Quarter 4 2019 – Depending on market conditions, American crude production could be on the cusp of hitting 13 mmb/d – presenting yet another problem as OPEC meets in December.


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